The Rugby League Eye Test: Set Restarts, Expected Points, and the New Normal
The NRL season has kicked off with a bang, and the early rounds have already set a new standard for set restarts and expected points. With 92 set restarts awarded in Round 2, compared to just 70 penalties, the game is more dynamic and unpredictable than ever. The increase in set restarts is occurring everywhere, not just inside the new zone between the 20 and 40-metre line. This has led to a lot of points being scored, with an average of over 50 points per game in the first two rounds. However, the relationship between set restarts and points scored is not as obvious as it seems.
The author argues that the restarts are not affecting results, but rather exaggerating the margin between teams. Some of the high scores are more due to bad defensive reads or structures than the volume of set restarts. The author also notes that the increase in set restarts is leading to more tries from repeat sets, but the conversion rate has stayed roughly the same.
The author provides a detailed analysis of the first two rounds of the season, including the Broncos vs Eels, Warriors vs Raiders, Roosters vs Rabbitohs, Tigers vs Cowboys, Storm vs Dragons, Panthers vs Sharks, Knights vs Sea Eagles, and Dolphins vs Titans. The author also discusses the impact of the rule change on the game, and the implications for the future of the sport.
The author concludes that the new normal is here, and we need to accept it. The game is more exciting and unpredictable than ever, and the author looks forward to seeing how the season unfolds. The author also encourages readers to support independent rugby league content by donating or sharing the post with others.
